More leaders expect AI productivity gains than workforce cuts

More business leaders expect artificial intelligence to increase output from their existing employees than to reduce headcount, according to Workday’s October 2026 Global Workforce Report.

40% expect higher productivity from existing staff, while 28% expect fewer employees overall. Respondents could select multiple answers, including both productivity gains and workforce reductions.

34% expect changes to roles or work and 33% expect new roles or skills when introducing AI or automation.

Workday’s customer data also records workforce reductions. The largest employers account for most of the net headcount decline, while the typical employer’s growth is approximately zero. The data does not establish how much of the decline AI caused.

Employers’ advertised AI skill requirements are changing. Demand for basic skills, including simple prompting, peaked in January 2026 before falling 25% over the following months. Demand for building AI tools, automating workflows and AI engineering rose 51% between September 2025 and July 2026.

The skills figures come from job requisitions across 554 enterprise employers using Workday Recruiting. Technology was an exception, with demand rising for both foundational and applied AI skills. Advertised requirements do not establish whether basic AI skills are becoming less useful or more widely assumed.

79% of workers said they know which skills they need to succeed, while 66% felt their employer supports them in developing those skills. 65% felt confident adapting if their role’s required skills changed.

Phil Willburn, vice president, people systems, intelligence & support at Workday, said: ‘Employees may not be changing jobs, but their jobs are changing around them. Leaders need to be honest about what’s different and give people a way to keep up.’

Lateral internal job changes fell year on year at 57% of employers, while promotion rates worldwide stayed essentially flat. Employees seeking internal moves cited paused or changed roles, unsupportive managers and selection processes they considered unfair.

49% did not pursue an internal move in the past year. Among that group, 44% were satisfied where they were and 27% saw no attractive opportunity within their company.

Mentions of management and leadership skills in job requisitions fell 7%, while mentions of learning and development skills fell 13%, between September 2025 and July 2026.

The report combines separate Workday workforce, employee sentiment and recruiting datasets with surveys. Workforce comparisons cover active customers with at least 250 employees, matched across periods. The September survey covered 6,001 respondents, with about 1,780 answering decision-maker questions, across the US, UK, Canada, Australia, France and Germany. Workday describes the trends as descriptive rather than causal.

Expected impact of AI or automation

• 40% expect higher productivity from existing staff.
• 34% expect changes to roles or work.
• 33% expect new roles or skills.
• 28% expect fewer employees overall.
• 18% expect less need to recruit.
• 8% expect AI to have no significant impact.

Multiple responses permitted. Respondents could expect both productivity gains and fewer employees.

Source: Workday Global Workforce Report, October 2026, page 12. September survey, decision-maker questions, approximately 1,780 respondents across six countries.