US banks’ junior workforce shrinks as senior roles grow
Revelio Labs data raises questions about banks’ future supply of expertise as junior headcount falls and financial analysts progress faster.
US banks’ junior workforce has shrunk by 4.7% since October 2022 while senior headcount continues to grow, according to analysis by Revelio Labs.
Around three quarters of senior banking roles are filled internally. The decline in junior staff raises questions about the future supply of experienced bankers in an industry where expertise has traditionally developed through work at junior level.
The reduction began earlier and has been steeper than in the rest of the economy. Commercial and retail banking account for the sharpest squeeze, while investment banking and capital markets have experienced a later and more modest junior decline. Junior headcount in insurance has continued to grow.
Revelio defines junior workers as early-career staff beyond entry level who have not yet reached senior or supervisory roles, including bank analysts. Its rest-of-economy comparison excludes non-bank finance.
Lower hiring, rather than sustained increases in departures, accounts for the decline. Junior attrition rose briefly in 2023 before returning to its usual range. Junior hiring fell from about 10.5% of junior headcount a year before ChatGPT’s launch to around 8.5% in 2024 and 2025, before recovering in 2026.
Career progression has also accelerated. Since ChatGPT launched in November 2022, the average time financial analysts spend in junior roles before reaching a higher seniority level has fallen by 11.3%. The measure includes internal promotions and moves to another employer. The equivalent decline in banking technology roles was 8.1%, compared with about 6% across roles elsewhere in the economy.
Shorter periods at junior level and fewer junior roles raise questions about how banks develop the judgement required in senior positions. The analysis does not measure whether people progressing faster have acquired less expertise.
Banking jobs are more exposed to AI than those elsewhere. In the first quarter of 2026, AI could help perform 49% of the activities in junior banking job postings and 43% in senior postings, compared with 35% elsewhere.
Explicit mentions of AI tools, techniques or workflows appeared in 8.6% of junior banking postings and 16.4% of senior postings. These figures measure job advertisement content, rather than employees’ actual use of AI.
The employment trends do not establish AI as the cause of the junior decline. Headcount in the most and least AI-exposed junior roles has moved similarly. Revelio also identifies the 2022 interest rate cycle as a likely influence on hiring.
The longer shift towards digital banking is changing the workforce mix. Technology roles’ share of labour costs in commercial and retail banking rose from 12.0% in 2015 to 17.4% in 2025, while client-facing sales roles lost ground.
Work within roles is changing too. Across sales, compliance and financial analyst jobs, the share of activities more exposed to AI declined between 2021 and 2026. Financial analysts’ work has shifted from accounting and operations towards capital markets, planning and risk analysis.
The unresolved question is how banks sustain the development of senior expertise as the junior workforce becomes smaller and the work within those roles changes.
Key figures
- 4.7% decline in US junior banking headcount from October 2022
- Around three quarters of senior banking roles filled internally
- 11.3% reduction in time financial analysts spend at junior level before progressing
- 49% AI exposure for activities in junior banking job postings, Q1 2026
- 17.4% of commercial and retail banking labour costs allocated to technology roles in 2025, up from 12.0% in 2015
Links
Revelio Labs data
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Brace for AI-Driven Job Cuts