Hiring confidence rises in pre-conflict survey as AI shows strongest returns in L&D

Hiring confidence among employers strengthened at the start of 2026, according to the Employment Outlook Survey from workforce solutions provider ManpowerGroup.

The findings reflect employer sentiment during the early weeks of the year, between 1 January and 3 February 2026, before conflict escalated in the Middle East. As a result, the data does not capture any potential impact those events may have on business confidence or hiring plans, however, they do present a snapshot of underlying improving business confidence.

Globally, Net Employment Outlook for Q2 2026 stands at 31%, the strongest reading since the third quarter of 2022, based on responses from more than 41,700 employers across 42 countries.

Hiring expectations for Q2 2026

The 31% Global Net Employment Outlook figure is up six points quarter-on-quarter and seven points year-on-year:

• 45% of employers plan to increase staff, driven primarily by expansion.
• 40% expect to keep staffing levels unchanged
• 13% anticipate reducing staff, down three points from the previous quarter.
• 2% are unsure of their hiring plans, down from 4% last quarter, suggesting improving clarity among employers. 

AI and workforce strategy

The survey also looked at how employers are using artificial intelligence across workforce activities including recruitment, onboarding and employee development.

Among these applications, learning and development delivers the strongest reported return on investment, cited by 27% of employers.

Other areas where employers report returns from AI include team performance tools and workforce scheduling, more than double the share citing talent acquisition at 9%.

• 27% say AI delivers the strongest ROI in learning and development
• 16% cite team performance tools
• 14% cite scheduling or forecasting
• 9% cite talent acquisition

The findings suggest organisations are seeing the clearest value from AI when it is applied to skills development and workforce capability.

Compared with areas such as recruitment, where questions around governance, bias and regulatory risk can limit the use of automated decision-making, learning applications tend to focus on supporting employees with knowledge, coaching and personalised development. That can make the benefits easier for organisations to demonstrate.

Only 8% of employers say current AI tools fully meet expectations for hiring, onboarding and training, highlighting that many organisations are still experimenting with how best to deploy the technology.

Regional hiring outlook

• US: 38%, well above the 31% global average and up from 35% year-on-year
• UK: 27%, up 10 points from 17% year-on-year
• Global highs: India 68%, UAE 60%, Brazil 55%

Sector outlook

• Information sector: 41% outlook, the strongest hiring intentions of any sector and up 12 points from the previous quarter.
• Finance and insurance: 35% outlook, the second-strongest sector hiring expectations.
• Hospitality: 22% outlook, signalling the most cautious hiring intentions this quarter.

The Information and Trade and Logistics sectors are expected to generate the largest increases in headcount in absolute terms.

The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, now in its 64th year, is based on interviews with more than 41,700 employers worldwide and is widely used as a forward-looking indicator of labour market activity.

Report

Q2 2026 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey