External job moves slow as hiring thresholds rise
Mobility drops, experience demands increase and pay gains weaken across US white-collar roles.
External job switching among US white-collar workers has fallen sharply since 2022. Entry-level mobility is down around 40% compared with 2019 levels, based on analysis from Revelio Labs.
The post-pandemic hiring surge has given way to slower movement between employers. Hiring criteria are tighter. Wage growth has weakened.
Early-career workers are most affected. Employers have reduced hiring for junior roles more aggressively than for mid and senior positions. Entry-level roles carry higher training costs and greater uncertainty around performance. The gap in mobility between entry-level and more experienced workers has widened.
Employers are hiring more experienced candidates. New hires now bring around two additional years of experience compared with 2019. The effective bar for entry into many roles has risen. This shift appears across seniority levels. Organisations are prioritising immediate productivity over potential.
Pressure is also visible inside organisations. Promotion rates have declined since 2022. Progression is more limited for those who stay.
Pay progression through job moves has weakened. During the hiring surge of 2021 and 2022, more than half of job switches delivered pay increases of at least 10%. By 2025, that share has dropped to around 41%.
Fewer substantial pay increases reduce the incentive to change employers. Lower hiring activity and higher experience requirements are reinforcing the slowdown in mobility.
Entry-level workers face fewer openings and higher expectations. Experienced hires are favoured. The market continues to function but offers less flexibility, fewer rapid progression opportunities and reduced financial upside from moving roles.