Youth skills gap could leave 1.25m outside work and education
The UK NEET rate could reach 16% by 2030, with employers demanding more digital skills from young recruits, according to new modelling.
More than 1.25 million young people could be outside education, employment or training by 2030 if recent labour market trends continue, according to modelling from digital training provider The Coders Guild.
Its scenario puts the UK NEET rate for 16 to 24-year-olds at about 16% by the end of the decade, compared with 13.5% in the first quarter of 2026. That would leave between 1.2 million and 1.3 million young people outside work, education or training.
The Coders Guild has taken the latest Office for National Statistics NEET rate and added 2.5 percentage points, based on recent trends and government-commissioned analysis indicating that the rate could exceed 16% within five years if current conditions persist.
The calculation produces a central estimate of about 1.25 million young people, compared with approximately 1.01 million at the start of 2026.
Concerns about labour routes available to young people
Entry-level recruitment has weakened in parts of the economy while employers are placing greater emphasis on digital and technical skills. Apprenticeship participation also remains below earlier levels in some industries.
Crispin Read, founder of The Coders Guild, said employers were reporting skills shortages while growing numbers of young people remained outside education and work.
'Businesses are already competing for digital talent, yet too many young people are still missing out on the skills, training and opportunities that would help them build long-term careers,' he said.
The Coders Guild's regional scenarios point to substantial differences across England. It projects the North East NEET rate at 23.5% in 2030, the highest of the English regions, followed by the East Midlands at 19% and Yorkshire and the Humber at 18.1%.
London has a lower projected rate of 14.5%, but its larger youth population means the modelling puts the number of young people outside education, employment or training at about 152,000, the highest regional total.
The government has introduced measures including the Youth Guarantee and wider skills reforms. The Coders Guild argues that apprenticeships, digital skills training, earlier careers support and measures to reduce the cost and administrative burden of employing apprentices at smaller businesses will be needed to improve routes into work.
Read said smaller employers could play a larger role in youth employment if the risks and costs associated with taking on apprentices were reduced.
'The SMEs we work with want to hire young people locally, they just feel they can't, because it's too much risk, too much admin, too much cost,' he said. 'De-risking apprenticeships for smaller businesses is the single biggest lever we've got here.'
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